Natural History Museum analysis finds critical ecosystems are not being protected by current 30by30 conservation efforts

· New analysis from Museum scientists shows current conservation efforts are not adequately protecting the land that provides our most critical ecosystem services, which 6 billion people depend on

· Biodiversity intactness of land delivering the most critical ecosystem services is on average declining more quickly within protected areas than it is outside protected areas

Ahead of COP16, new analysis from Natural History Museum (NHM) scientists reveals that current conservation efforts for the 30by30 target – which commits all 197 countries signed to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity to designate 30% of Earth's land and ocean as protected areas by 2030 – are not adequately protecting the most critical ecosystem services which 6 billion people depend on.

So far, the prevailing approach to implementing 30by30 has been to strengthen and expand the global network of protected and conserved areas.

Emma Woods, Director of Policy at the NHM said, “We urgently need to move beyond the current approach of simply designating more protected areas to 30by30. Our analysis reinforces the view that this will not automatically result in better outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystems.”

“As well as reaching the 30% target, we also need to place more emphasis on the quality of those areas already protected, their effective management and the value they return for both people and nature.”

NHM Scientists, including Dr Gonzalo Albaladejo-Robles, Bioinformatician and Dr Adriana De Palma, Co-Lead of the Biodiversity Futures Lab, carried out the new analysis using the Museum’s Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII). BII summarises the change in ecological communities in response to human pressures, providing a rigorous indicator of biodiversity health on a scale of 0 to 100%.

Over 6 billion people rely on the top 30% of land delivering the most critical ecosystem services, such as food, energy, raw materials, regulation of water quality and carbon storage.

Currently only 22% of this land delivering the most critical ecosystem services is located within protected areas. However, within this 22%, biodiversity intactness is declining more quickly than it is outside protected areas.

In areas delivering the most critical ecosystem services that are not protected, biodiversity is has declined by an average 1.91 percentage points between 2000 and 2020, and is more degraded, with a BII of 55.41% in 2020.

However, while BII across areas delivering the most critical ecosystem services that are also found within protected areas is the highest (73.23% in 2020), it is also declining the fastest, by 2.12 percentage points.

The findings suggest that current conservation efforts within the protected areas are not working to sustain these critical ecosystem services, and we are at real risk of losing them.

This research highlights the urgency of ensuring that conservation strategies are aware of areas delivering the most critical ecosystem services, and that effective management plans are in place to safeguard the protection of these areas, and other areas, for the future.

To achieve this, the NHM advises that 30by30 implementation should be driven by the following principles:

· Focus more attention on effectively conserving the land that delivers the most critical ecosystem services for people, alongside species protection.

· Move beyond static designations of areas that merely meet minimum requirements, or focus on a specific species or outcome, towards a more dynamic and closely monitored process whereby areas can be ‘managed up’ to a state of greater resilience.

· Strengthen capacity at both national and international levels to monitor and model biodiversity change in a timely, thorough, and meaningful way.

The full policy report can be found here: Towards 30 by 30: Balancing nature and people | Natural History Museum (nhm.ac.uk)The underlying scientific analysis and wider application of BII to analysis such as this will also be explored further in an upcoming academic research paper.

Natural History Museum at COP16

A Natural History Museum delegation at COP16 will be engaging with policy makers and business leaders and taking part in critical conversations around the planetary emergency, biodiversity loss and the vital role of data.

The Natural History Museum (NHM) is a world-leading science research centre and its 350 scientists represent one of the largest research groups finding solutions to the planetary emergency.

The key areas of focus at COP16 for the Museum’s delegation are:

1. Biodiversity indicators​

We want to see the Monitoring Framework for the Global Biodiversity Framework finalised. As part of this, we will be advocating for model-based indicators – such as the Biodiversity Intactness Index ('the BII'), developed by the Natural History Museum – as effective ways to not only understand past biodiversity change, but also predict future change and enable governments and businesses to plan and act accordingly. The BII is already included as a ‘component’ indicator in the draft Monitoring Framework.​

2. 30by30​

We will be sharing new analysis on 30by30 via our policy brief and accompanying materials. This analysis highlights the need to place more attention on effectively conserving the land that delivers the most critical ecosystem services for people (alongside other outcomes), while demonstrating the importance of data and modelling in helping deliver the Global Biodiversity Framework.​

3. Digital Sequence Information​ and Collecting for the Future

We want to strengthen partnerships with the custodians of biodiversity and providers of genetic sequence data, including indigenous peoples. We will be contributing to discussions on potential codes of conduct for digital sequence information, including supporting a multi-lateral benefit sharing mechanism that meets a range of needs.

NHM Activity Highlights at COP16:

UK Biodiversity Alliance booth (Blue Zone): A home for the UK Biodiversity Alliance (Natural History Museum, the Zoological Society of London, and Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew) where delegates can meet representatives and hear more about this exciting new partnership.​

22 October, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Natural History Museum side event, ‘The UK’s leading role in biodiversity monitoring and modelling’ (Green Zone): 14:00-18:00, The GREAT Casa Britannica. Two panels followed by networking.​

23 October, Nature Positive Initiative (Blue Zone): NHM Head of Research Innovation, Dr Gareth Thomas, will be involved in events and roundtables throughout the day.

26-27 October, Science-Policy Forum (Blue Zone): Professor Andy Purvis is speaking during Day 2 (27th) on ‘Monitoring – Advances of scientific networks for addressing gaps in the implementation of the Monitoring Framework of COP 15 Decision 15/5’. Emma Woods is speaking during Day 2 (27th) on ‘Science for NBSAPs – Integrating Science and Data for Effective NBSAPs and Community Engagement (Targets 20 and 21)’.​

NHM scientific delegation at COP16

The following scientists from the Museum will be appearing at COP28 events taking place in Colombia:

Emma Woods, Director of Policy: As the Museum’s first Director of Policy, Emma is setting up a policy unit to help tackle the planetary emergency. Drawing on the Museum’s scientific expertise and public reach, she is increasing engagement with those who make and shape policy about the natural world.​ Previously Head of Policy at the Royal Society, she worked with world-leading scientists to influence policy and public debate on issues ranging from genetic technologies to the global climate and biodiversity crises. She has also worked for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (specialising in geoengineering), sustainable development charities and teaching organisations, and holds prestigious fellowships with the Westminster Abbey Institute, British-American Project, and Cambridge University Centre for Science and Policy. She has degrees in biology and environment from Oxford University.

Dr Blanca Huertas, Principal Curator Insects: Blanca is an expert in butterflies, responsible for the 5 million butterfly collections at the Natural History Museum. Her research, focuses on tropical faunas using biological collections, addressing issues such climate change, endemism, species discovery and conservation and more lately genomics. Blanca has led large international initiatives leading to the declaration of protected areas, developing training and capacity building. Blanca is co-author of the first list of the Butterflies of Colombia consolidating the country as the world’s richest. Also, she is the main author of the first field guide dedicated to Colombia’s Endemic butterflies. Blanca has completed a MSc at Imperial College London and a PhD from University College London. She has published more than 100 scientific articles in international journals, and co-authored books on insects, biodiversity and conservation.

Dr Gareth Thomas MRSB, Head of Research Innovation​: Gareth is an academic at the Natural History Museum in London, known for his expertise in environmental science, encompassing fields such as terrestrial ecology, statistical analysis, geospatial insights, molecular microbial ecology, marine biology, and analytical chemistry. With a strong publication record, he has become a prominent figure in the scientific community. Gareth also has an extensive commercial background; pioneering innovative data-licensing commercial enterprises and engaging with global organisations across various sectors, highlighting his adaptability in bridging academia and industry. He is a passionate advocate for biodiversity and environmental conservation, actively contributing to policy development, public outreach, and "bending the curve" on biodiversity loss.

Professor Andy Purvis, Research Leader: Andy is a Research Leader at the Natural History Museum in London and has been a leading conservation scientist for over two decades. He heads the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems), which aims to model globally how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human pressures and to use these models to project potential biodiversity futures under alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development. Previously, he co-led a large collaboration to understand patterns of extinction risk in the world's mammals. He was a Coordinating Lead Author on the first IPBES Global Assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services, scientific advisor on Sir David Attenborough’s documentary, “Extinction: The Facts”, and a contributor to Greta Thunberg’s Climate Book.​

Professor Yadvinder Malhi CBE, NHM Trustee and Professor of Ecosystem Science at Oxford University: Yadvinder is Professor of Ecosystem Science at the Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, and Senior Research fellow at Oriel College. His research explores the functioning of the biosphere and its interactions with global change, including climate change. His team at the Environmental Change Institute is known for collecting intensive field data from fascinating but sometimes tough and remote forests, while his Ecosystem Dynamics research lab focusses on forest vegetation-atmosphere interactions. He is also Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery at Oxford, a multidisciplinary centre which researches how to deliver nature recovery that is scalable, effective and socially inclusive.

-ENDS-

Notes to Editors

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